The final grand slam of 2026 is going to be historic, no matter what. We will either get a new world number 1 or Aryna Sabalenka will shut down the talk of a crisis in her game to claim her third grand slam title in New York in a row and retain her crown. Every slam feel like an opportunity on the WTA tour, but this one feels massive. 

The numbers are in Elena Rybakina’s favour. Even if she does not compete – there are a few injury concerns over her Achilles – she would ascend to the top of the rankings if the other three don’t take the title. Sabalenka, Gauff and Pegula all will be the world number 1 if they take the US Open crown. And quite honestly, all outcomes are very possible. 

For Aryna Sabalenka, it’s been a tough road since winning the Sunshine Double in March. Things had been looking good for her as a dominant world number 1, even though Rybakina had won the WTA finals and the Australian Open. She was still right there, runner up in both but winning other titles, always going deep. Then the run of unexpected losses started, culminating in whatever the hell that disaster was in Paris. A set and a break up on Diana Shnaider in the quarter final, she just lost her mind and her game. Off the back of unexpected losses in Madrid and Rome, Paris still stands apart as the really bad one. I don’t even think the Wimbledon loss to Naomi Osaka was that bad as Osaka was totally in the zone that day.  

This situation is not new for Sabalenka – she came into the US Open last year facing a slamless year after losses in the RG final and Wimbledon semifinals, but this year is something different. I am a fan of Sabalenka but there has been something off about her since Paris, especially. She looks unbalanced in her movement and tense in her swings. This tournament will either be confirmation of Sabalenka’s greatness as she swats away opponents and doubters to make history as a three-time winner, or the start of a new phase in her career, having to rebuild and fight after a drop down the rankings. Quite honestly, I will be surprised if she wins it. But on the other hand, she could very well finally string it all together here once more. 

Elena Rybakina really should have overtaken Sabalenka by now but she herself has not been the most convincing. Rybakina has had a few issues with fitness and form herself and some losses that were equally baffling – the loss to Mertens at Wimbledon following unexpected losses to Eala in Berlin and Boulter at Queens made it a dismal grass court season when many thought Wimbledon was hers. However, she has shown that her brand of clean hitting tennis when firing, can still be devastating, with great wins over Osaka and Gauff in Toronto. But with losses and a retirement to Iga Swiatek in the last two tournaments, there are some doubts. She would love to get that top ranking I am sure, but also must beware of further injury. Would it be an anticlimax if she got to number 1 by default? Well, it didn’t bother Aryna Sabalenka who did the same in 2023 after losing the US Open final to Coco Gauff but being the new world number 1 afterwards anyway. With a lot of points to defend through the Asian Swing, the WTA finals and the Australian Open in January, this is her best chance. Can Elena grab it – or have it handed to her? 

Probably the most convincing looking players right now are Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. Swiatek rediscovered her form in Toronto and is looking far more like the old Iga who dominated, but it was Coco Gauff who was hugely impressive in Cincinnati. Her game has been scrappy for the last few years but as the best athlete and most tenacious competitor, she has stayed in the top 5 even with a dodgy serve and forehand. Well, those shots looked great in Cincy and quite honestly, if Coco has all the shots AND her phenomenal speed and fighting spirit, this could be her year. Many have predicted Gauff would be a world number 1 one day. It seems almost certain considering her age – still only 22 – and maybe this could be her year? Gauff is a confidence player and the last time she won Cincinnati, she won the US Open. She has massive support in New York too, and it may well be we crown Coco the new world number 1 and US Open champion. 

At the other end of the age scale, 32-year-old Jessica Pegula is arguably for many of us, the best player not to have won a slam. She has been there or thereabouts for so long but has not managed to get that slam title yet. In a year when youngsters Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova proved their potential by winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon, could it be another first-time slam winner but proving herself in a different way? For me, I would actually really love to see Pegula win in New York. Jess Pegula is just such an admirable person and player. She doesn’t have the power of Sabalenka and Rybakina, she isn’t as speedy as Gauff and Swiatek, but she has a steady, smart game. Those aren’t very sexy adjectives, but if you like women’s tennis, Jess Pegula is one of the good ones. Always calm and measured – I love that her Asian fans compare her to a capybara as she is definitely chill like them! Pegula had a great win over Swiatek in Cincinnati but was nowhere near Coco Gauff in the final. She also had a disappointingly flat performance against Gauff at Wimbledon. The draw has come out that if Pegula can make the final, she could well face Gauff (or Swiatek or Rybakina or Osaka – all in the opposite half to Pegula and Sabalenka). 

So, it is all to play for – who will emerge as the world number 1 in two weeks’ time? The tiger proving her claws still work fine, Aryna Sabalenka or for the first time, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula? Should be fascinating….